Oct. 21, 2024 – Wisconsin’s close polling continues to cement our status as one of the biggest battleground states for national and state political campaigns. Based on candidate visits and campaign spending, the presidential teams clearly view Wisconsin as a crucial state to win for the White House. Beyond the Presidental race, the race for US Senate is also on the nation’s radar, as the result could play a pivotal role in determining which party controls the Senate in 2025.
While top of the ticket campaigns receive a vast amount of discussion and attention, Wisconsin’s “down ballot” races are some of the most competitive in years and could alter which party controls the state Legislature, or at the very least, significantly reduce the size of the current Republican majority. This is due to the actions taken by the Republican-controlled Senate and Assembly last session when they voted to approve new maps drafted by Governor Evers. The passage of the new maps came after the Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed to take a case regarding the construction of the state legislative maps that were in place for the 2022 elections. Election observers agree that there will be smaller majorities in both houses come 2025.
Senate and Assembly Races Will Determine Legislative Majorities
Obviously, the final results will not be known until after the polls close on Nov. 5, but if anything can be learned from the past decade of elections, it is to expect the unexpected. No matter how the elections shake out, the makeup of the legislature will be noticeably different. Twenty-eight members of the legislature will not return next session due to retirements or primary election losses. Depending on how races break on Election Day, there could be nearly one-third of the current legislature turning over.
In the state Senate, much of the focus is on four races considered competitive toss-ups based on partisan composition from previous elections. Sixteen of the 33 Senate seats (all even number districts) are up for election in 2024. Races in the 8th Senate District, 14th Senate District, 18th Senate District and 30th Senate District have received the most focus and spending. While these races are under new district lines, all of the old districts were held by Republicans. Two of the districts (the 8th and 14th) have incumbent Republicans working to hold their seats, while the other two are open seats without an incumbent Senator. Even if Democrats were to win all of the potential competitive seats they will still likely be short of a majority in the Senate, but winning at least three of the seats would open the opportunity for a chance at the majority in next election cycle in the fall of 2026. The current partisan breakdown of the Senate is 22 Republicans and 10 Democrats with one vacancy.
Cale Battles, is the government relations program manager with the State Bar of Wisconsin. He can be reached by
email, or by phone at (608) 250-6077.
All 99 seats in the Assembly are up for election this fall. Based on new district lines and partisan composition, Democratic candidates are poised to add seats in favorable districts. The new district lines have also opened up more competitive elections. Over a dozen districts will be very competitive toss-ups with razor thin favorites. In almost all of these districts, Republicans are playing defense trying to maintain the seats they current hold. Eight of the most of most competitive seats have Republican incumbents, three are open seats with no incumbent and the last two competitive seats have Democratic incumbents. The current partisan makeup of the Assembly is 63 Republicans and 36 Democrats.
Election Information
For information on polling locations and times, what’s on your ballot, your voter registration status, and more, go to My Vote Wisconsin:
https://myvote.wi.gov.
Election Day is Nov. 5. In Wisconsin, inauguration day and the start of the 2025-26 session will be Jan. 6, 2025.
